Wireless Internet Grows

The moribund wireless data market could explode in the next five years, driven partly by increasing user reliance on remote database access, according to one study.

The consulting firm Killen & Associates Inc. estimates the North American market alone for carrier services, equipment and software providing wireless Internet access will jump to $37.5 billion by 2002 from about $2.7 billion this year.

That type of growth would mark a significant acceleration of the wireless data business, which so far is described as disappointing. Analysts have pointed to problems with transmission technologies, differing platforms, expensive equipment and lack of any "killer" or "must-have" applications for slowing wireless data growth.

"It's never gone anywhere, because it was never linked to a real great force," President Michael Killen said of wireless data. "Now it's possible to link subscribers with a great, great force: all of the Internet-based databases being built around the world every minute."

The study looked at the potential revenue that would be generated by equipment makers, software providers, wireless carriers and other companies whose products are necessary for fixed or mobile users to connect with the public Internet, private corporate intranets or inter-company extranets.

Wireless access devices will range from handheld digital phones such as the AT&T Wireless Services Inc.'s PocketNet to regular laptop computer and handheld PCs. Networks include the public cellular, personal communications services and data networks such as ARDIS, plus wireless local area networks and satellite access services.

Users will include those needing Internet access who find wireless is the most expeditious way to get it and those experienced wireless users who want to extend the utility of their devices to the Internet.

Killen said three factors would be significant drivers in the growth of wireless Internet access: increased availability of equipment and software standards allowing creation
of huge numbers of new applications; increasing reliance--especially among business users--on information stored in databases accessible via Internet, intranets and extranets; and the allying of carriers with other industries to create new services.

"The business user certainly has a real economic need," Killen said. "However, you and I as regular consumers are having an increasing need and interest to do the same."